Whatever your preseason expectations for this team were, they have surpassed them — and then some.
1928, '39, and '98 teams all won the World Series, so that's worth remembering. It's tied for the third-best start in team history after 69 games, and that means a lot more to this club than it does to others, given the extensive and never-ending list of Yankee success dating back a century. Though not just in terms of New York history, it has had the ninth-best start through 69 games of any AL ever. The clubs in front of them were all playoff teams. Four of them were World Series champions.
There's no reason to wait until late in the year to ask the question that Yankees fans either dread or look forward to, depending on where they fall on the fan spectrum: "How far along are we in the season? They've already played about 43 percent."
Is it possible to break the 2001 Mariners' 116-win record? What steps are necessary to get there?
Okay, yeah. Nothing is off-limits. They are on track for 120 victories after defeating Tampa Bay 5-4 on Wednesday. Of course, calling this "on pace" isn't accurate because you can't rely on the past to predict the future. For instance, those Mariners from 2001 began out 53-16 through 69 games, outperforming these Yankees by two games. They failed to reach 120.
despite the loss of Chad Green for the season, which has hurt the bullpen, the only major position player excursions to the injured list have been two brief 10-day stays in May from Giancarlo Stanton (ankle) and Josh Donaldson (shoulder). How long does that endure for the Majors' oldest lineup?
Another is that, despite how good Aaron Judge has appeared to be, it's unlikely he will indeed smash 62 home runs. Given his current trajectory, Anthony Rizzo probably won't live to be 45. Nothing in Jose Trevino's past indicates that a 137 OPS+ is a realistic expectation for him throughout an entire season.
As it turns out, it also works the other way around; you might have had higher expectations for Aaron Hicks and Joey Gallo than you. You speculate that Brian Cashman will make an unanticipated acquisition before the trade deadline. However, suppose they're still in a commanding position in the AL East come September. In that case, it's also possible to imagine them prioritizing rest for pitchers like Nestor Cortes Jr. and Jameson Taillon before setting any specific records.
Consider it like this: We've discovered two things about the Yankees. We now have some knowledge of the roster's players. And a lot about the fact that they've played 69 games and already collected 51 victories. No matter what else occurs, those remain. Today, the Yankees aren't 0–0 if you consider the rest of the 2022 season to be a brand-new Opening Day. They stand 51-18. It's a fantastic place to begin. What follows then?
The Yankees have 93 games remaining and 51-18 (.739). They would have to go 65-28, or a.699 winning percentage, to match the 2001 Mariners' record of 116 wins. They would need to go 66-27, or a.709 winning %, to break the previous record of 117.
Sincerely, I don't think that seems unreasonable. Depending on how you count overlapping periods, a team has had a 93-game stretch a season with a winning % of at least—700 numerous times since 2000. The Dodgers of 2017 succeeded. In the same way, the 2004 Cardinals, those 2001 Mariners, the 2001 and 2002 A's, and so forth. The Yankees performed it in 1998, 1997, and several other instances. Though uncommon, it is not unusual.
The catch, though, is this—and it's enormous. Only four teams in the past 50 years have accomplished this feat to conclude a season: the 2001 A's, 1993 Braves, 1977 Royals, and 1975 Reds AS's probably because of the injuries and late-season rest that we mentioned earlier. Such a strong season debut is challenging. To end a season in that way is even worse.
The storied 1927 Bombers, who finished 66-27, had the most extraordinary Yankee record over 93 games (.710). Therefore, they require more than a legendary start to set a new record for wins. They, too, need a memorable conclusion.
One minor caveat must be noted when comparing teams that have begun 51-18 (or better) through 69 games: Few teams have ever accomplished it! Just a dozen, some of them date from a time before integration that hardly seems comparable to the state of the game today. Considering that, up until 1969, winning first place guaranteed entry into the World Series. The current Yankees club won't be able to benefit from the absence of any pre-Series playoffs.
Therefore, let's look at those 12 teams and compare how they performed in the first 69 games to how they performed subsequently, without worrying about postseason success. (Remember that there were only 154 games up until 1961.)
The 1912 Giants had a.809 through 69;.578 the remainder of the year; and a.231 records.
.779 through 69;.704 the remainder of the year; -.075
The Mariners of 2001
.768 through 69;.677 the remainder of the year; -.091
The Cubs of 1907
Through 69,.765; the remainder of the year.655; and, -.110
The Yankees of 1939
.754 through 69;.659 the remainder of the year; -.095
The 1929 A's
Through 69,.754; the remainder of the year,.642; and -.112
The Yankees of 1928
.754 through 69;.576 the remainder of the year; -.178
The Giants of 1904
Through 69,.742; the remainder of the year,.655; and -.087
The Yankees in 1998
Through 69,.739; the remainder of the year,.677; and -.062
The Tigers of 1984
739 through 69;.570 for the remainder of the year; -.169
The Dodgers of 1955
Through 69,.739; the remainder of the year,.560; and -.179
739 through 69; 536 for the remainder of the year; -.203
So, as a good reminder of how challenging this all is, every single one of the dozen teams that had such a solid start to the season played worse the rest of the year by an average of -.133 winning percentage. As a whole, they continued to play winning baseball; in total, they had a.624 winning percentage or a pace of 101 wins over a 162-game season if the Yankees engaged in play.
They would win 109 games if they played the remaining 624 balls. But no records would be broken. Even so, it would still be a solid regular season.
What do the forecasts indicate?
Because they consider a player's prior performance, we prefer the projections—systems like Zips, Steamer, or the Bat. Again using Trevino as an example, you cannot ignore the 519 below-average plate appearances he had posted before the season and think that the 124 plate appearances he has this year are "what he is now." (However, we do discover persuasive evidence of the reforms he has made.)
Of course, the forecasts are not exact. They cannot predict upcoming injuries or how trades will alter the roster. Nevertheless, neither can we. According to a 2017 FanGraphs study, they are looking at preseason projections to predict the rest of the season's winning percentage almost always outperformed the team's current winning %, at least 50 games into a season.
We can certainly improve. Preseason predictions are not necessary. What the Yankees have done thus far is known to us, and it matters. The forecasts support this. So, this is what they are currently saying:
103-59 on FanGraphs
103-59 in Baseball Prospectus
The Yankees will have 120 wins if they continue to play similarly. They would be a 109-win team if they finished as the other Great Start Teams. They will be at 103 if they complete the race as predicted. They'll finish strong, but at least one of the injury-prone batters will miss a lot more time than they have thus far, according to our human gut instinct. They will fall short of the all-time win total by a sizable margin.
No one will care. They will receive one of the two byes in the first round of the playoffs, setting themselves up well for a run to their first championship since 2009 and the 28th overall. That will ultimately determine the success (or failure) of the 2022 Yankees. Without the ring, a record-breaking win total probably won't matter. Just ask the Mariners from 2001, after all.
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